The Bumbled Bubble, All Around.

 

The Bumbled Bubble.

     By Dominic Alvieri @AlvieriD

        The Bumbled Bubble is not just about valuations. 

        Out of date policies, practices and procedures are holding our country back. 

 

The Federal minimum wage has NOT CHANGED since 2009 at $7.25 per hour. The chart below from NASDAQ.com during that same period of time shows a staggering return of 541%, not including dividends. Chart below courtesy of NASDAQ.com. During that time that the minimum wage has not changed. That must be repeated. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has gained 325.78%, not adjusted for inflation (CPI), and 225.45% from July 24, 2009, to the last trading day of August, 2020.

 If one were to adjust the minimum wage by the lower end DJIA return over the same period the minimum wage would be $23.60 per hour. The jobs that are being pushed at $8-12 an hour. That is not a job. We all can hear of the record $364 million dollars raised by a party. The other party is not far behind. They have good paying jobs and benefits. Companies are keeping wages down and hours below the benefit threshold. A common trick. Many old tricks are being exposed daily and the bad actors continue to act as if everything is just swell.

The data is from the US Government, DJIA, NASDAQ.com websites. Twitter Fact Check That. @AlvieriD

The Pandemic funding shows flaws in the systems and society. PPP loans were being pushed to prevent companies from laying workers off. The massive Federal Reserve cash injection has inflated stocks to such lofty levels and artificial record highs. A couple of four that has not lost their jobs they received an extra $3,400. The FEMA Emergency Fund level is a new important number to watch. If the economy does not improve by that point, will the Fed be able to step in again? What about stepping in to more than double the minimum wage? You can please highlight the more than 11 year run at this minimum that said owner has been taking advantage of. 

What then? Ten dollars an hour for anyone who lost a twenty dollar an hour job? People who didn’t lose their jobs and could buy stocks at the lows did well. What if I don’t have any stocks? What is a stock? 

Middle income workers had to drain savings accounts and sell stocks at the low in March to survive because of the uncertainty, delays, and capacity issues flooding the unemployment systems. Some systems are outdated technologies including Cobalt. Many states have different networks, within a standard, but they are not the same as the government systems. Technologically or by fiscal implementation standards. Is the same politician around? Probably.

 

Part 2. As the markets soared to unsustainable heights, tens of millions of workers are still looking to replace multiple jobs with living wages. Productivity and cost reductions by corporations during the Pandemic brought about the realization that staffing levels can be lowered and you can increase the bottom line. You can paint any picture you want. I see people with the new cars and items, and I see the people unable to maintain their homes. Franchise and business owners get to buy another Maserati or Mercedes while others have to beg that same owner to get to eleven dollars an hour?

Do the math. Is that a living wage? Is $15? How much is that new iPhone?

Fake accounts count but people without a social media account don’t? 

Did anyone else hear that?

Wall Street pays better. They avoid struggling areas in the Bronx, West Philadelphia or Crenshaw. Go to any state. You don’t know what the real issue is. Wall Street has an issue as well. No more Chinese companies to go public like Un-luckin Coffee. 

Now what? 

There is something about a person in cybersecurity that is not common...you see things. You find things. You can sometimes hear things, but you have to listen.

                     

Part 3. Please Do Not Part. The Federal Reserve ad infinitum is not possible. 

 My children would like an iPhone as well, not a black and white tv.

Again. The Federal Reserve has pumped a record amount of money into the economy, read markets. Money has nowhere else to go. not to the intended bottom line. At least  not your bottom line. Valuations continue to be distorted. Reports that 6 out of 7 major stocks account for the majority gains in the S&P 500. Apple soared to a market capitalization of 2 Trillion dollars this past week. 

With the flood of companies rushing to cash out at record highs accountability must be noted today, not years from now. AirBnB and Stripe are discussing going public. Bumble and Skillz have filed this past week with more coming as reported. Valuations continue to be created out of thin air in some cases, ala the 1990’s Dotcom Bubble “new metric.” It is different this time. Pay Per Account. Reports value the Bumble IPO at over 6 Billion dollars. What metric was that again?

 Wait, am I the buyer? Who am I buying from?

Mr Buffet, what is the going rate for a fake account? Recent reports of new fraudulent and fake accounts sexually exploiting minors have been dubbed “Instagram Joe” and “TikTok Tony” on social media. They are everywhere. Every platform suffers from that plague. Even on LinkedIn. A fake recruiter contacted me that I scared off was on LinkedIn. Something about Cybersecurity that makes the bad guys run. That was an easy spot. Not even a good Troll. Social, racial and political Trolls abound. It is hunting season.

The MO is usually the same. Multiple fake social accounts on multiple platforms. Several fake email accounts. Silicon Valley needs to work together. Two systems on the same network can get in trouble, no? Closing the account is simply kicking the can to the next, if he is not already there. They have multiple outlets.  

Will that account be there next month? Is that account and traffic real? Validating an IPO with metrics that need to be purged of what is now known before the sale. If I have 10 accounts and 2 are fake and fraudulent accounts doing more harm then good, how can they be included? What would you pay?

A fake account is not a valuable asset. It is fraud on both sides. The user behind the account, and the accountant who validates a known fake. Every platform has fake accounts.  

 

American middle class be aware. Middle class is now low income.

The old adage is true, the rich keep getting richer while the poor get poorer. 

 

 

CNBC, CNN and other major news outlets continue to push what sells. Push what is paid for. Why don’t we talk about Pelosi’s hair cur or Trumps Tweets. That sells. The homeless and most unemployed do not have social accounts to make their voice heard. Corporate America will see the woman in NC making $33 a week in unemployment and does not even qualify for the new $300 wage loss provision. The wage loss provision does not kick in unless you make over $100 a week in unemployment. That doesn’t sell, but that is the truth.

Black Lives Matter supporters, does anyone know what is going to happen to that nice woman? Does she not count? Don't we all count?

Dominic Alvieri. Analyst, Independent Researcher and Tracker. @AlvieriD